Three Decades of Industry Highlights
What ever happened to "Tech Wreck"
Reprinted from LanczGlobal.com Member's Only Sector Spotlight (11/8/99)
The euphoria around technology stocks is growing to levels that should be a
cause of concern to most investors. We have discovered from experience that
when investors favor a sector so much that it falls under the "must have at any
price scenario", then it is a good time to take some profits. Nearly twice the
mutual fund dollars are going into technology funds this week than the first week
of October. It seems to be a given now to get growth you have to buy
technology related stocks, particularly with the growth prospects of the internet.
Many novice investors feel that this out-performance of technology is
commonplace, but just three years ago technology companies traded at a 19%
discount to non-technology peers. Currently with shares in higher and higher
demand such an occurrence (of trading at a discount) seems unthinkable. We are
advocates of technology and feel technology will continue to be a vital catalyst
for global economic growth. But some of the extreme valuations force us to take
some profits and be extremely selective with any new purchases here. The
internet craze reminds us of the early tech craze of 1982-1983, when a host of PC
companies went public...of which Apple Computer was the only one that survived.
Full Article: Whatever Happened to Tech Wreck
Protecting Your Nest Egg in a Recession (11/12/07)
OUR THOUGHTS AT THE MARKET PEAK
Alan Lancz is president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates Inc., a professional money management firm in Toledo, Ohio.
Lancz says one of the key factors in a successful portfolio in any type of economy is managing risk. He also has taken
the unusual step of fully disclosing to his clients, on a real-time basis, the holdings in his personal and retirement
portfolios, and his company's corporate holdings.
It's important to be strategically in the right areas or sectors of the market. In May 2007, we recommended selling the real
estate investment trusts (REITs), utilities and financials. The financials comprise more than 20 percent of the S&P 500.
If you look back at 2000, technology was over 20 percent, and whenever you get a sector that comprises so much of the market
it's usually a concern, a red flag should go up to investors.
They've gone down quite a bit, so it's not as worrisome, but in our estimation there's too much uncertainty. We don't know if
another shoe will drop as far as subprime. Usually when there's fallout that will take longer -- just like with technology,
it took more than a year for the sell-off to correct all the excesses in technology -- and we kind of see that with the financials,
so it's an area that we would still avoid.
Be proactive, not reactive
It's more a matter of being in the right companies. Even in technology we're overweight, but our overweight is from a year ago.
We plan on selling, and that's my second point: being proactive rather than reactive. What I mean in that regard is we recommended
selling the financials and REITs and the utilities in May -- we're going to be selling into the technologies because all of a sudden
technology has become a safe haven because it doesn't have the subprime and credit concerns.
Full Article: Yahoo Finance article
Risk Adverse Investing
Smart Money July 2010
"Investors don't have to be in every asset class, especially when certain classes are at bubble valuations."
"At times diversification can actually hurt you, particularly when you are in an asset class you shouldn't have been in the first place."
Full Article: Smart Money article
2011 - The Year of Discipline
TOLEDO, Ohio (MarketWatch) -- There is a different type of investor surfacing now than during the midst of the financial crisis in 2008-09.
Then, it was based on pure panic and getting one's assets where they would be continually managed for risk, rather than the buy-and-hold roller coaster that most investors were experiencing. Today's investor is no longer in panic mode, but rather is coming from two very different camps or philosophies.
One group of investors missed much of the severe downturn during the financial crisis, but unfortunately never got back into equities during the dramatic weakness and has watched from the sidelines throughout the impressive rally. These investors are concerned about getting back in just before another collapse after already missing so much of the upside.
The second group of investors is participating in this rally, but has the haunting fear that their investment in every asset-class allocation or momentum success of late will lead to eventual disaster without the right investment disciplines in place.
These investors still have vivid memories of how poorly their asset-allocation models protected their capital in 2008, when nearly every asset class across the globe plummeted in value. The bottom line with both groups of investors is that they are looking at ways to participate and/or ride out this bull market as long as possible, but doing so with a risk-management strategy in place that will protect profits in these volatile selloffs.
Full Article: 2011 - The Year of Discipline
Black Monday - October 19, 1987
It is always enlightening to find out what your
advisor or investment expert was doing at the time.
Even though a good percentage of today’s experts
were not even in the business then, we found that
navigating through a 22% one-day drop was
definitely a valuable experience. The experience
confirmed to me the importance of our primary
directive of sticking with your discipline and, in
some ways, established the Alan B. Lancz &
Associates, Inc. presence on a global scale
Full Article: Black Monday October 19, 1987
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Local Media Coverage
Putting cash to work as prices decline with Syria, government dysfunction, etc., it is critical to take profits as prices rise like we did this summer.
Interview with financial analyst and expert Alan B. Lancz after record breaking weeks
in the Down Jones Industrials with the advisory firm's 2014 outlook.
WTVG The Roundtable (4/22/12)
Alan Lancz is the sole guest on WTVG's The Roundtable hosted by Jeff Smith. Discussions include how to obtain
the best paying CDs to avoiding long term treasuries. Mr. Lancz says to expect stock market volatility in both
directions, rather than just upwards as was seen in the 1st quarter of 2012.